Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| O/U 38.5 | 84% |
| O/U 36.5 | 82% |
| Army O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| Temple O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| Army vs. Temple | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 63% |
| Temple O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 44.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 46.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Army 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Temple 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Army 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Temple 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Temple O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Army 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Temple 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Army Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Army vs. Temple: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| O/U 48.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| O/U 40.5 | 44% |
| O/U 50.5 | 44% |
| Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 52.5 | 38% |
| Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| O/U 58.5 | 25% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| O/U 60.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| O/U 62.5 | 19% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| O/U 64.5 | 17% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 66.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Army vs. Temple — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 91%. In the upcoming college football game between Army and Temple, scheduled for September 25 at 4:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Army" if Army win the game. This market will resolve to "Temple" if…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $552K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Army vs. Temple über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Trump Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Army vs. Temple" auf Trump Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →