Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 96% |
| Spread -1.5 | 95% |
| Spread -5.5 | 95% |
| Spread -3.5 | 94% |
| Spread -4.5 | 94% |
| O/U 40.5 | 94% |
| Spread -6.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Spread -7.5 | 90% |
| Spread -9.5 | 90% |
| Spread -10.5 | 88% |
| Spread -11.5 | 85% |
| O/U 46.5 | 82% |
| Spread -13.5 | 81% |
| Spread -14.5 | 78% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Spread -16.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 75% |
| O/U 44.5 | 74% |
| Spread -17.5 | 73% |
| Spread -12.5 | 71% |
| O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| O/U 48.5 | 70% |
| Spread -20.5 | 65% |
| Spread -15.5 | 64% |
| O/U 52.5 | 64% |
| O/U 54.5 | 59% |
| Spread -18.5 | 53% |
| O/U 56.5 | 52% |
| Spread -19.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| South Carolina O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -22.5 | 49% |
| Spread -25.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Spread -26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 58.5 | 46% |
| O/U 60.5 | 46% |
| Spread -28.5 | 41% |
| Spread -29.5 | 41% |
| O/U 62.5 | 40% |
| O/U 66.5 | 36% |
| O/U 68.5 | 34% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 72.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| O/U 74.5 | 31% |
| Spread -32.5 | 30% |
| O/U 64.5 | 30% |
| O/U 70.5 | 16% |
| Spread -2.5 | 15% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 11% |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama | 2% |
| Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 100% Chance für prognose: south carolina vs. alabama. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming college football game between South Carolina and Alabama, scheduled for September 26 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Carolina" if South Carolina wi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $347K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: South Carolina vs. Alabama plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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