Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Bowling Green 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 2H Moneyline | 91% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 91% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Florida Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bowling Green Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| South Florida 2H O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| Bowling Green 2H O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Bowling Green 2H O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Bowling Green 2H O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| South Florida O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Bowling Green O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 10% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 10% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| South Florida vs. Bowling Green: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Spread -38.5 | 1% |
| Spread -34.5 | 1% |
| Spread -32.5 | 1% |
| Spread -31.5 | 1% |
| Spread -25.5 | 1% |
| Spread -22.5 | 1% |
| Spread -19.5 | 1% |
| Spread -18.5 | 1% |
| Spread -15.5 | 1% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| Spread -12.5 | 1% |
| Spread -11.5 | 1% |
| Spread -10.5 | 1% |
| Spread -9.5 | 1% |
| Spread -2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 28.5 | 1% |
| O/U 30.5 | 1% |
| O/U 32.5 | 1% |
| O/U 34.5 | 1% |
| O/U 38.5 | 1% |
| O/U 40.5 | 1% |
| O/U 44.5 | 1% |
| O/U 46.5 | 1% |
| O/U 50.5 | 1% |
| O/U 58.5 | 1% |
| O/U 62.5 | 1% |
| O/U 64.5 | 1% |
| O/U 66.5 | 1% |
| O/U 68.5 | 1% |
| South Florida O/U 27.5 | 1% |
| South Florida O/U 30.5 | 1% |
| South Florida O/U 33.5 | 1% |
| South Florida O/U 36.5 | 1% |
| South Florida O/U 39.5 | 1% |
| Bowling Green O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Bowling Green O/U 11.5 | 1% |
| Bowling Green O/U 14.5 | 1% |
| Bowling Green O/U 17.5 | 1% |
| Bowling Green O/U 20.5 | 1% |
| Spread -35.5 | 0% |
| Spread -28.5 | 0% |
| Spread -26.5 | 0% |
| Spread -24.5 | 0% |
| Spread -23.5 | 0% |
| Spread -21.5 | 0% |
| Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| O/U 42.5 | 0% |
| O/U 48.5 | 0% |
| O/U 52.5 | 0% |
| O/U 54.5 | 0% |
| O/U 56.5 | 0% |
| O/U 60.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| South Florida 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Bowling Green 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| Bowling Green 1H O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: South Florida vs. Bowling Green — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between South Florida and Bowling Green, scheduled for September 26 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Florida" if South Florida win the game. This …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $473K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: South Florida vs. Bowling Green plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Trump Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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