Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 62% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 59% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Reece James: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ assists | 47% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 44% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 34% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 32% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 29% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Reece James: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 22% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Reece James: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 12% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Reece James: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 8% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 5% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Nicolás Paz: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Thiago Almada: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Exequiel Palacios: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 3+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Reece James: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 93% Chance für prognose: england vs. argentina - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: England vs. Argentina - Player Props plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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