Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Merino: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nicolás González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Yeremi Pino: 3+ goals | 48% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Mikel Merino: 3+ goals | 47% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 45% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 44% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 40% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 35% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 33% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 32% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 31% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 24% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 23% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 17% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 15% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Lionel Messi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Nicolás Tagliafico: 2+ shots | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 91% Chance für prognose: spain vs. argentina - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: Spain vs. Argentina - Player Props über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Trump Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Trump Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
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