Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 43% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Trump Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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