Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Trump Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Live-Quoten ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| 49ers O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 27.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| O/U 29.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 31.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 90% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 89% |
| O/U 33.5 | 88% |
| O/U 34.5 | 88% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 36.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| Cardinals O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| 49ers O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| O/U 37.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 77% |
| O/U 39.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 68% |
| O/U 42.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 67% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 44.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| O/U 45.5 | 57% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 13.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 55% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Cardinals O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Cardinals O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Cardinals O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 49ers O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Cardinals by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: 49ers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 49ers Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 49ers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cardinals 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 49ers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Cardinals O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| 49ers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| O/U 48.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 43% |
| Cardinals O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -11.5 | 41% |
| Spread -12.5 | 41% |
| O/U 50.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 38% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| O/U 52.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| O/U 54.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 30% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 1H Moneyline | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -17.5 | 27% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Spread -19.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Cardinals vs. 49ers | 23% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 22% |
| 49ers 1H O/U 20.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 16.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 62.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 11% |
| Spread -5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Cardinals 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 97%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 4:05PM ET: If Cardinals wins, the market will resolve to "Cardinals". If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $242K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Cardinals vs. 49ers plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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